Wednesday, October 18, 2006

The Zune Attack Is Working

In Why Microsoft Needs Zune, we saw that Zune serves Microsoft two purposes. First, it is a weapon Microsoft uses to attack iPod/iTunes and divert Apple resource away from unleashing OS X against Windows on generic PCs. Second, it is a long term investment in a new growth line of business.

The first purpose is already being served. Music player news and analysis reports are now dominated by the iPod versus Zune debate at a time when not a single Zune has been shipped. Steve Jobs, who to my knowledge has never publicly even mentioned the existence of another MP3 player, discussed Zune in a recent Newsweek interview. He had cute quotes, like this one about Zune's wireless music sharing capability: "It takes forever. By the time you've gone through all that, the girl's got up and left! You're much better off to take one of your earbuds out and put it in her ear. Then you're connected with about two feet of headphone cable." Analysts and reporters have mainly focused on the choice of brown as one of Zune's color choices, and other silly transitory details.

This must be music to Steve Ballmer's ears. This is exactly what he wants at this stage, a feature discussion. That implies that consumers should compare Zune and iPod features. That's all he wants now, for the word Zune to appear close to the word iPod, in whatever context, as often as possible. Microsoft knows not to worry about feature issues at this stage. Does anyone remember how clunky Word was for the first few years? Excel? Windows? Microsoft wrote the book on focused, relentless, continuous improvement. What they want now is what is happening, Apple focusing on them as the competition and the press and analysts pumping the idea of a two-horse race.

Microsoft is content to wait for several years before they find their groove in this market, so long as Apple focuses on them as a strategic threat. They trust in their proven ability to win over time. Microsoft can wait years to master the music player market. Microsoft can wait years for Zune to be profitable. Apple has neither luxury.

Copyright © 2006 Philip Bookman

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