Monday, January 22, 2007

Why iPhone Is Good For Microsoft

While iPhone raises the bar for Microsoft’s Zune clone-and-hone strategy, one aspect of Apple’s iPhone announcement is particularly good for Microsoft. The iPhone will use a version of the Macintosh OS X operating system. Apple has made it clear that this will be a full-function operating system with a touch screen interface replacing the Mac GUI. It will be a closed system, meaning that Apple will control the applications that can run on it. Don't expect to be downloading apps except as carefully controlled extensions of some Apple base application.

Why is this good news for Microsoft? Windows CE is the version of Windows designed for small memory devices. In its most familiar form, Windows CE powers Windows Mobile, which runs PDAs and SmartPhones. Think of Windows Mobile as Windows CE with an interface designed for cell phones and PDAs.

Hmm, that sure sounds similar to OS X with an interface for cell phones, doesn't it? It is. The main difference is that Windows Mobile is implemented by hardware vendors, and they can and most often do allow installation of third party applications. That follows the Microsoft Windows strategy on the PC platform. It is how they got 95% of that market.

The iPhone will raise the expectation of what a cell phone can and should do and how it should do it. This will increase the market for Windows Mobile phones, because Windows Mobile is the best way for phone manufacturers to get full operating system functionality. The bonus is that users get the benefit of adding innovative applications from all sorts of sources. Like games, which were noticeably missing from the iPhone entertainment package. Windows Mobile frees you from dependence on a single software vendor. Apple simply cannot be all things to all people.

Microsoft and others are working feverishly to extend the seasoned capabilities of Windows Mobile to add iPhone-like goodies. The main work will be in extending the touch screen interface, long a part of Windows Mobile, to an on-screen keyboard interface, coupled with button-free capability and a consistent application look-and-feel. This just like what Windows 3.0 brought to the DOS application user interface Tower of Babel when it mimicked the Macintosh user interface in 1990. For the hardware makers, their investment in Windows Mobile implementation skills can be leveraged over a wide range of devices, with or without keys and buttons, with large and small screens and a range of available packaged applications targeted at audience segments large and small.

With 50% gross margins, the iPhone will be very successful for Apple if it gets 5% of the cell phone market of a billion units a year (Apple is looking for just 1% in the first year). Guess who covets the other 95%? Could it be just like in the PC market, Apple extends the envelope and Microsoft gratefully delivers those advances to "the rest of us?"

Copyright © 2007 Philip Bookman

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