Thursday, February 08, 2007

The Year The Video World Changed

2007 looks like it will mark a turning point in video content distribution. In January, Microsoft announced that Xbox 360 will be able to download IPTV content by the end of this year, Apple announced more details of AppleTV, a box that will let you download iTunes video, and NetFlix announced its video download service for PCs. This week, Wal-Mart announced a PC video download service. Yesterday, Amazon and Tivo announced Amazon Unbox on Tivo, a service that will enable Tivo users to download video content from Amazon.

By the end of this year, you should be able to download content to your HVB (Home Video Box - think DVR on steroids) and play it on your TVs and computers. It will not be neat and clean. Some HVBs will only work with certain devices (Windows PCs but not Macs, or vice-versa, for example). Some will only handle content from certain sources. DRM issues will be ugly, and Steve Jobs will not jawbone the problem away. But the market will rule, and those who build annoying limitations into their systems will ultimately lose out to those who are open. Network effects trump proprietary considerations.

TVs, PCs and ultimately any electronic device with a video display will function as home network appliances that can be used to play content from your HVB. HVBs will proliferate with varied capabilities. Some will also serve as game consoles, some as home network backup devices, some as wireless routers and hubs for the home (dare I say "server?"). Look for lots of innovation and confusion as this all sorts itself out over the next few years.

This has immense implications for any business that touches the home video market. From the broadcast and cable networks, to the cable and phone service providers, to the advertisers and production studios, to the PC, TV, game console, handheld device and network firms, the world changed in 2007.

And it's only February.

Copyright © 2007 Philip Bookman

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